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Dereliction of Operational Expertise: How Self-Efficacy Shapes Decisionmaking - Wargaming Pitting Bankers Against USMC Generals, Confidence Impact on Leader Cognitive Functions, Dunning-Kruger Effect

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Dereliction of Operational Expertise: How Self-Efficacy Shapes Decisionmaking - Wargaming Pitting Bankers Against USMC Generals, Confidence Impact on Leader Cognitive Functions, Dunning-Kruger Effect

4.85 89,995 ratings · 9,137 reviews
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Overview: In 1995, LtGen(R) Paul Van Riper pitted bankers against U.S. Marine Corps generals in two contests - a stock exchange simulation and a wargame. The venture capitalists won both exercises, beating standing operational leaders that represented decades of deployment and experience. LtGen(R) Van Riper believed that the money managers success stemmed from resiliency and confidence in ambiguous situations. Learning from this failure, the U.S. Army may be able to increase operational leader effectiveness by fostering self-efficacy - confidence - in relation to observed ability.A literature review discusses the doctrine and theory behind how commanders discern the environment, learn as adults, and explains how leaders make rapid decisions during execution. Human subjects research replicates the general aspects of the 1995 wargame, now modified for play between instructors from the U.S. Army Command and General Staff College and civilian recreational board-gamers. Information collected explores the validity of LTG(R) Van Riper's claim while simultaneously measuring confidence levels. The discussion describes the impact of confidence on leader cognitive functions when making rapid decisions. Recommendations provide options on utilizing self-efficacy in leader development.This compilation also includes a reproduction of the 2019 Worldwide Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community.Contents: 1. Introduction * 2. Literature Review * Complex Adaptive Systems * Experiential Learning * Naturalistic Decisionmaking * Self-Efficacy * 3. Methodology * Self-Efficacy Survey * Wargame Practicum * 4. Results * Self-Efficacy Survey * Wargame Practicum and Interviews * 5. Discussion * The Dunning-Kruger Effect * The Impostor Phenomenon * 6. Recommendations * Returning Self-Efficacy to Doctrine * Researching to Determine Statistical Significance * 7. ConclusionThis researcher explored the role of self-efficacy, commonly referred to as confidence, in operational decisionmaking while conducting LSCO. Commanding generals will rapid decisions in the age of big data. In future combat, leader self-doubt may contribute to mission failure. Doctrine directs commanders to trust their experiences; however, the same writings provide little insight into evaluating professional judgment and the impact of practice and observation of an individual's skills. In the pursuit of facts supporting self-efficacy concerning judgment and practice, assumptions remain. Human subjects research may dispel some of these assumptions. First, many individuals in the U.S. Army do not believe that operational leaders receive enough repetitions at decisionmaking during training. Semi-structured interviews may confirm this widespread assumption. Next, doctrine assumes leaders automatically execute an additional cognitive step in decisionmaking. After mentally selecting a course of action, leaders must possess enough confidence to translate decision into action. The third assumption presumes the U.S. Army does not provide candid feedback during training events. While the practice is not absent in doctrine, it may not be as frank as required to facilitate holistic leader development. When conducted correctly, frank discussions provide a perspective of one's ability and efficacy.

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Pages 84
Publisher Independently Published
Published N/A
ISBN 48936841
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U.S. Military
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U.S. Military is a writer and avid reader based in the Pacific Northwest. Before pursuing writing full-time, they spent over a decade working in education. When not working on their next book, U.S. Military can usually be found hiking with their dog or trying out new coffee shops in their neighborhood.

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Such a rich narrative. The author orchestrated a breathtaking finale. Truly a work of art. A true literary gem.
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I thoroughly enjoyed the elegance of it. A brilliant concept executed with flair. Just a few pacing choices I would change. A wonderful companion for a quiet weekend.
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Absolutely brilliant. The prose is exquisite. It’s accessible yet undeniably sophisticated. I am now a lifelong fan of this author.
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Absolutely brilliant. The pacing was impeccable and the characters felt incredibly authentic. I was completely immersed. An absolute must-read for connoisseurs of the genre.
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Honestly one of the most premium reading experiences lately. The prose is exquisite. It’s accessible yet undeniably sophisticated. I am now a lifelong fan of this author.
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I was completely blown away. The author orchestrated a breathtaking finale. Truly a work of art. I will undoubtedly revisit this masterpiece.
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I was completely blown away. The pacing was impeccable and the characters felt incredibly authentic. I was completely immersed. I will undoubtedly revisit this masterpiece.
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Exceeded all my expectations. The prose is exquisite. It’s accessible yet undeniably sophisticated. I am now a lifelong fan of this author.
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I thoroughly enjoyed the elegance of it. A brilliant concept executed with flair. Just a few pacing choices I would change. A very distinguished novel.
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A profoundly satisfying read. The pacing was impeccable and the characters felt incredibly authentic. I was completely immersed. I am now a lifelong fan of this author.
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Such a rich narrative. The author orchestrated a breathtaking finale. Truly a work of art. I am now a lifelong fan of this author.
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Took a moment to build, but the payoff was spectacular. The middle had a deliberate pace, but the climax was phenomenal. A solid 4 stars from me.
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Exceeded all my expectations. The author orchestrated a breathtaking finale. Truly a work of art. A true literary gem.
Nancy Lewis
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Such a rich narrative. The author orchestrated a breathtaking finale. Truly a work of art. An absolute must-read for connoisseurs of the genre.
Eric Gonzalez
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I was completely blown away. I became deeply invested in the protagonist's journey. A masterclass in storytelling. A true literary gem.
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I was completely blown away. I became deeply invested in the protagonist's journey. A masterclass in storytelling. I am now a lifelong fan of this author.
Sandra Edwards
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Masterpiece from start to finish. It strikes a perfect harmony of dialogue and world-building. Every chapter felt necessary. An effortless 5 stars.
Christopher Turner
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Took a moment to build, but the payoff was spectacular. It held my rapt attention, even when certain twists were telegraphed. Quite impressive overall.
Gary Walker
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Excellent, though slightly flawed. A brilliant concept executed with flair. Just a few pacing choices I would change. Quite impressive overall.
Robert Evans
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A highly sophisticated read. A brilliant concept executed with flair. Just a few pacing choices I would change. Quite impressive overall.
Deborah Martin
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Exceeded all my expectations. I became deeply invested in the protagonist's journey. A masterclass in storytelling. An absolute must-read for connoisseurs of the genre.
Stephanie Hill
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I was completely blown away. I adored how the story unfolded. It kept me captivated without sacrificing elegance. A true literary gem.
Carol Thomas
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Such a rich narrative. I adored how the story unfolded. It kept me captivated without sacrificing elegance. An effortless 5 stars.
William Young
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Exceeded all my expectations. The pacing was impeccable and the characters felt incredibly authentic. I was completely immersed. An absolute must-read for connoisseurs of the genre.
Brian Smith
Brian Smith December 22, 2024
A very strong entry. The middle had a deliberate pace, but the climax was phenomenal. A wonderful companion for a quiet weekend.
Kenneth Walker
Kenneth Walker April 22, 2024
Such a rich narrative. I adored how the story unfolded. It kept me captivated without sacrificing elegance. An absolute must-read for connoisseurs of the genre.
Andrew Garcia
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Masterpiece from start to finish. I adored how the story unfolded. It kept me captivated without sacrificing elegance. Worth every moment spent reading.
Nicholas Roberts
Nicholas Roberts November 14, 2024
Honestly one of the most premium reading experiences lately. The author orchestrated a breathtaking finale. Truly a work of art. An effortless 5 stars.
Cynthia Scott
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Exceeded all my expectations. I adored how the story unfolded. It kept me captivated without sacrificing elegance. An absolute must-read for connoisseurs of the genre.
Steven Hall
Steven Hall October 13, 2024
Exceeded all my expectations. I adored how the story unfolded. It kept me captivated without sacrificing elegance. A true literary gem.
Matthew Phillips
Matthew Phillips October 13, 2025
Exceeded all my expectations. The author orchestrated a breathtaking finale. Truly a work of art. I will undoubtedly revisit this masterpiece.
Margaret Nelson
Margaret Nelson May 13, 2025
Honestly one of the most premium reading experiences lately. It strikes a perfect harmony of dialogue and world-building. Every chapter felt necessary. I will undoubtedly revisit this masterpiece.
Ryan Wilson
Ryan Wilson April 28, 2025
Absolutely brilliant. I adored how the story unfolded. It kept me captivated without sacrificing elegance. An absolute must-read for connoisseurs of the genre.
Donald Flores
Donald Flores July 06, 2025
A highly sophisticated read. A brilliant concept executed with flair. Just a few pacing choices I would change. Quite impressive overall.
Elizabeth Diaz
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I thoroughly enjoyed the elegance of it. A brilliant concept executed with flair. Just a few pacing choices I would change. A wonderful companion for a quiet weekend.
Daniel Wilson
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A profoundly satisfying read. The prose is exquisite. It’s accessible yet undeniably sophisticated. I am now a lifelong fan of this author.
Mary Roberts
Mary Roberts June 14, 2025
I thoroughly enjoyed the elegance of it. The protagonist was compelling, though some subplots felt slightly overshadowed. A very distinguished novel.
Eric  Davis
Eric Davis February 02, 2024
A profoundly satisfying read. It strikes a perfect harmony of dialogue and world-building. Every chapter felt necessary. A true literary gem.
Laura Reyes
Laura Reyes July 24, 2025
Honestly one of the most premium reading experiences lately. The author orchestrated a breathtaking finale. Truly a work of art. An absolute must-read for connoisseurs of the genre.
Ryan Wilson
Ryan Wilson February 17, 2024
A profoundly satisfying read. I became deeply invested in the protagonist's journey. A masterclass in storytelling. An absolute must-read for connoisseurs of the genre.
Lisa Green
Lisa Green September 29, 2024
I thoroughly enjoyed the elegance of it. A brilliant concept executed with flair. Just a few pacing choices I would change. A very distinguished novel.
George Rodriguez
George Rodriguez October 11, 2024
A profoundly satisfying read. The prose is exquisite. It’s accessible yet undeniably sophisticated. I will undoubtedly revisit this masterpiece.
Gary Lopez
Gary Lopez May 17, 2024
A highly sophisticated read. It held my rapt attention, even when certain twists were telegraphed. Quite impressive overall.
Stephanie Roberts
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Exceeded all my expectations. The pacing was impeccable and the characters felt incredibly authentic. I was completely immersed. An effortless 5 stars.
Amanda Anderson
Amanda Anderson April 29, 2024
A profoundly satisfying read. I adored how the story unfolded. It kept me captivated without sacrificing elegance. An effortless 5 stars.
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Joseph Gomez January 27, 2025
A highly sophisticated read. A brilliant concept executed with flair. Just a few pacing choices I would change. A wonderful companion for a quiet weekend.
Rebecca Thompson
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A profoundly satisfying read. The author orchestrated a breathtaking finale. Truly a work of art. An effortless 5 stars.
Jacob Lee
Jacob Lee September 06, 2024
Excellent, though slightly flawed. A brilliant concept executed with flair. Just a few pacing choices I would change. I would highly recommend this to discerning readers.
Donald Phillips
Donald Phillips October 12, 2025
Absolutely brilliant. I adored how the story unfolded. It kept me captivated without sacrificing elegance. An absolute must-read for connoisseurs of the genre.
Jennifer Hernandez
Jennifer Hernandez September 24, 2025
A decent, if standard, experience. It verged on repetitive in the second act. A more concise edit would have served it well. Perfectly average.
Laura Young
Laura Young April 21, 2025
Excellent, though slightly flawed. The middle had a deliberate pace, but the climax was phenomenal. Quite impressive overall.
Karen Cruz
Karen Cruz April 29, 2025
A highly sophisticated read. The protagonist was compelling, though some subplots felt slightly overshadowed. A wonderful companion for a quiet weekend.
Joshua Nguyen
Joshua Nguyen May 25, 2024
A decent, if standard, experience. The prose was competent, yet the characters lacked the depth I usually seek. Perhaps more aligned with a different audience's tastes.
Andrew Garcia
Andrew Garcia January 26, 2024
A highly sophisticated read. The middle had a deliberate pace, but the climax was phenomenal. A solid 4 stars from me.
Brian Hill
Brian Hill April 28, 2025
Absolutely brilliant. I adored how the story unfolded. It kept me captivated without sacrificing elegance. An effortless 5 stars.
Daniel Wilson
Daniel Wilson September 02, 2025
Absolutely brilliant. The author orchestrated a breathtaking finale. Truly a work of art. A true literary gem.
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