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The Gamble: Choice and Chance in the 2012 Presidential Election

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The Gamble: Choice and Chance in the 2012 Presidential Election

4.85 81,709 ratings · 7,689 reviews
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Overview: "Game changer." We heard it so many times during the 2012 U.S. presidential election. But what actually made a difference in the contest--and what was just hype? In this groundbreaking book, John Sides and Lynn Vavreck tell the dramatic story of the election--with a big difference. Using an unusual "moneyball" approach, they look beyond the anecdote, folklore, and conventional wisdom that often pass for election analysis. Instead, they draw on extensive quantitative data about the economy, public opinion, news coverage, and political advertising to separate what was truly important from what was irrelevant. Combining this data with the best social science research and colorful on-the-ground reporting, they provide the most accurate and precise account of the election yet written--and the only book of its kind.Which mattered more--Barack Obama's midsummer ad blitz or the election year's economic growth? How many voters actually changed their minds--and was it ever enough to sway the outcome? "The Gamble" answers important questions like these by looking at the interplay between the candidates' strategic choices--the ads, speeches, rallies, and debates--and the chance circumstances of the election, especially the economy. In the Republican primary, the book shows, the electioneering and the media's restless attention did matter, producing a string of frontrunners. But when Obama and Mitt Romney finally squared off in the general election, there were few real game-changers. The candidates' billion-dollar campaigns were important but largely cancelled each other out, opening the way for Obama to do what incumbents usually do when running amid even modest economic growth: win.An election book unlike any other, "The Gamble" is a must-read for political junkies, analysts, journalists, consultants, and academics.

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Published January 1, 2013
ISBN 17861519
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John Sides
About the Author
John Sides
11,390 Followers

John Sides writes contemporary fiction and has always been fascinated by character-driven stories. They hold a degree in English Literature and previously worked as an editor before transitioning to writing their own books. John Sides lives with their spouse and a very vocal rescue cat.

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Donna Jackson
Donna Jackson January 12, 2025
A very strong entry. Beautiful writing, though I craved slightly more depth in the lore. Still, undeniably engaging. Quite impressive overall.
Michael Green
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Masterpiece from start to finish. The author orchestrated a breathtaking finale. Truly a work of art. An absolute must-read for connoisseurs of the genre.
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I thoroughly enjoyed the elegance of it. It held my rapt attention, even when certain twists were telegraphed. Quite impressive overall.
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Exceeded all my expectations. The author orchestrated a breathtaking finale. Truly a work of art. A true literary gem.
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Carol Flores October 01, 2024
A very strong entry. Beautiful writing, though I craved slightly more depth in the lore. Still, undeniably engaging. A wonderful companion for a quiet weekend.
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Karen Hernandez September 15, 2024
Masterpiece from start to finish. The author orchestrated a breathtaking finale. Truly a work of art. A true literary gem.
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Absolutely brilliant. It strikes a perfect harmony of dialogue and world-building. Every chapter felt necessary. An absolute must-read for connoisseurs of the genre.
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David Green October 26, 2024
Honestly one of the most premium reading experiences lately. I became deeply invested in the protagonist's journey. A masterclass in storytelling. I will undoubtedly revisit this masterpiece.
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I was completely blown away. I adored how the story unfolded. It kept me captivated without sacrificing elegance. Worth every moment spent reading.
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Deborah Smith October 13, 2025
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A very strong entry. The middle had a deliberate pace, but the climax was phenomenal. A wonderful companion for a quiet weekend.
Kimberly Hernandez
Kimberly Hernandez April 01, 2024
I was completely blown away. The pacing was impeccable and the characters felt incredibly authentic. I was completely immersed. An effortless 5 stars.
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Jacob Flores May 03, 2024
Masterpiece from start to finish. The pacing was impeccable and the characters felt incredibly authentic. I was completely immersed. An effortless 5 stars.
Brian Rodriguez
Brian Rodriguez August 27, 2025
Honestly one of the most premium reading experiences lately. I adored how the story unfolded. It kept me captivated without sacrificing elegance. A true literary gem.
Paul Baker
Paul Baker February 12, 2024
I was completely blown away. I adored how the story unfolded. It kept me captivated without sacrificing elegance. I will undoubtedly revisit this masterpiece.
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Daniel Diaz June 06, 2024
I thoroughly enjoyed the elegance of it. A brilliant concept executed with flair. Just a few pacing choices I would change. A solid 4 stars from me.
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A decent, if standard, experience. It verged on repetitive in the second act. A more concise edit would have served it well. Perhaps more aligned with a different audience's tastes.
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Thomas Moore July 29, 2025
A very strong entry. The middle had a deliberate pace, but the climax was phenomenal. A solid 4 stars from me.
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James Robinson January 30, 2024
An acceptable diversion. The tempo was somewhat languid, and I found my mind wandering. Not poor, simply average. A fair 3 stars.
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A very strong entry. The middle had a deliberate pace, but the climax was phenomenal. A wonderful companion for a quiet weekend.
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I find myself somewhat conflicted. Certain acts were fascinating, while others felt like a slight endeavor to complete. Suitable if your reading queue is empty.
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Steven Anderson April 09, 2024
Masterpiece from start to finish. The author orchestrated a breathtaking finale. Truly a work of art. I am now a lifelong fan of this author.
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I thoroughly enjoyed the elegance of it. It held my rapt attention, even when certain twists were telegraphed. Quite impressive overall.
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Took a moment to build, but the payoff was spectacular. The protagonist was compelling, though some subplots felt slightly overshadowed. A wonderful companion for a quiet weekend.
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Masterpiece from start to finish. The author orchestrated a breathtaking finale. Truly a work of art. I am now a lifelong fan of this author.
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A very strong entry. Beautiful writing, though I craved slightly more depth in the lore. Still, undeniably engaging. A wonderful companion for a quiet weekend.
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A profoundly satisfying read. The prose is exquisite. It’s accessible yet undeniably sophisticated. An effortless 5 stars.
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A highly sophisticated read. It held my rapt attention, even when certain twists were telegraphed. A very distinguished novel.
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A profoundly satisfying read. I became deeply invested in the protagonist's journey. A masterclass in storytelling. An absolute must-read for connoisseurs of the genre.
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Took a moment to build, but the payoff was spectacular. A brilliant concept executed with flair. Just a few pacing choices I would change. Quite impressive overall.
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A highly sophisticated read. A brilliant concept executed with flair. Just a few pacing choices I would change. A wonderful companion for a quiet weekend.
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Masterpiece from start to finish. I became deeply invested in the protagonist's journey. A masterclass in storytelling. I will undoubtedly revisit this masterpiece.
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Such a rich narrative. The author orchestrated a breathtaking finale. Truly a work of art. Worth every moment spent reading.
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Absolutely brilliant. The pacing was impeccable and the characters felt incredibly authentic. I was completely immersed. A true literary gem.
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Masterpiece from start to finish. The pacing was impeccable and the characters felt incredibly authentic. I was completely immersed. I will undoubtedly revisit this masterpiece.
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Andrew Anderson
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A highly sophisticated read. The protagonist was compelling, though some subplots felt slightly overshadowed. A wonderful companion for a quiet weekend.
Mary Reyes
Mary Reyes September 04, 2024
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Honestly one of the most premium reading experiences lately. The pacing was impeccable and the characters felt incredibly authentic. I was completely immersed. A true literary gem.
Matthew Diaz
Matthew Diaz May 06, 2024
A profoundly satisfying read. The prose is exquisite. It’s accessible yet undeniably sophisticated. I will undoubtedly revisit this masterpiece.
George Williams
George Williams October 26, 2024
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Ashley Gonzalez
Ashley Gonzalez February 06, 2025
I was completely blown away. The pacing was impeccable and the characters felt incredibly authentic. I was completely immersed. An effortless 5 stars.
Edward Thompson
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Absolutely brilliant. The author orchestrated a breathtaking finale. Truly a work of art. I will undoubtedly revisit this masterpiece.
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Donald Rivera
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Exceeded all my expectations. The pacing was impeccable and the characters felt incredibly authentic. I was completely immersed. Worth every moment spent reading.
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Dorothy Brown
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Absolutely brilliant. It strikes a perfect harmony of dialogue and world-building. Every chapter felt necessary. An effortless 5 stars.
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Took a moment to build, but the payoff was spectacular. The middle had a deliberate pace, but the climax was phenomenal. Quite impressive overall.
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Masterpiece from start to finish. I adored how the story unfolded. It kept me captivated without sacrificing elegance. A true literary gem.
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Honestly one of the most premium reading experiences lately. The pacing was impeccable and the characters felt incredibly authentic. I was completely immersed. An absolute must-read for connoisseurs of the genre.
Edward Adams
Edward Adams November 11, 2024
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Honestly one of the most premium reading experiences lately. The pacing was impeccable and the characters felt incredibly authentic. I was completely immersed. I am now a lifelong fan of this author.
Joshua Turner
Joshua Turner March 21, 2024
A profoundly satisfying read. The pacing was impeccable and the characters felt incredibly authentic. I was completely immersed. A true literary gem.
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It was adequate. The prose was competent, yet the characters lacked the depth I usually seek. Suitable if your reading queue is empty.
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Such a rich narrative. I became deeply invested in the protagonist's journey. A masterclass in storytelling. A true literary gem.
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Joshua Smith April 20, 2024
A very strong entry. The protagonist was compelling, though some subplots felt slightly overshadowed. A wonderful companion for a quiet weekend.
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Nicholas Nguyen October 14, 2025
I thoroughly enjoyed the elegance of it. The middle had a deliberate pace, but the climax was phenomenal. A very distinguished novel.
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Masterpiece from start to finish. I adored how the story unfolded. It kept me captivated without sacrificing elegance. I will undoubtedly revisit this masterpiece.
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Absolutely brilliant. It strikes a perfect harmony of dialogue and world-building. Every chapter felt necessary. I will undoubtedly revisit this masterpiece.
John Wilson
John Wilson December 25, 2024
Absolutely brilliant. The pacing was impeccable and the characters felt incredibly authentic. I was completely immersed. I will undoubtedly revisit this masterpiece.
Jennifer Moore
Jennifer Moore November 27, 2024
I was completely blown away. The author orchestrated a breathtaking finale. Truly a work of art. A true literary gem.
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Melissa Martinez January 01, 2024
Exceeded all my expectations. I adored how the story unfolded. It kept me captivated without sacrificing elegance. An absolute must-read for connoisseurs of the genre.
Brian Lee
Brian Lee July 09, 2024
Honestly one of the most premium reading experiences lately. It strikes a perfect harmony of dialogue and world-building. Every chapter felt necessary. A true literary gem.
Charles Campbell
Charles Campbell July 04, 2025
A profoundly satisfying read. I became deeply invested in the protagonist's journey. A masterclass in storytelling. I will undoubtedly revisit this masterpiece.
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Took a moment to build, but the payoff was spectacular. A brilliant concept executed with flair. Just a few pacing choices I would change. A very distinguished novel.
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Excellent, though slightly flawed. The middle had a deliberate pace, but the climax was phenomenal. A solid 4 stars from me.
Andrew Wright
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A highly sophisticated read. Beautiful writing, though I craved slightly more depth in the lore. Still, undeniably engaging. A wonderful companion for a quiet weekend.
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I was completely blown away. The author orchestrated a breathtaking finale. Truly a work of art. I will undoubtedly revisit this masterpiece.
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A very strong entry. A brilliant concept executed with flair. Just a few pacing choices I would change. Quite impressive overall.
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Patricia Hill December 28, 2025
A profoundly satisfying read. It strikes a perfect harmony of dialogue and world-building. Every chapter felt necessary. Worth every moment spent reading.
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A profoundly satisfying read. The pacing was impeccable and the characters felt incredibly authentic. I was completely immersed. An absolute must-read for connoisseurs of the genre.
Edward Jackson
Edward Jackson January 29, 2024
Absolutely brilliant. The pacing was impeccable and the characters felt incredibly authentic. I was completely immersed. Worth every moment spent reading.
James Lee
James Lee November 23, 2024
Not entirely to my refined tastes. It possessed moments of brilliance, but the narrative felt slightly disjointed ultimately. Perfectly average.
Eric Jones
Eric Jones April 22, 2024
Absolutely brilliant. The author orchestrated a breathtaking finale. Truly a work of art. I will undoubtedly revisit this masterpiece.
Linda Thompson
Linda Thompson October 26, 2024
A very strong entry. The protagonist was compelling, though some subplots felt slightly overshadowed. Quite impressive overall.
Lisa Lewis
Lisa Lewis September 04, 2025
Excellent, though slightly flawed. The protagonist was compelling, though some subplots felt slightly overshadowed. Quite impressive overall.
Thomas Hill
Thomas Hill June 23, 2024
Exceeded all my expectations. I became deeply invested in the protagonist's journey. A masterclass in storytelling. Worth every moment spent reading.
Kenneth Rodriguez
Kenneth Rodriguez May 31, 2024
Honestly one of the most premium reading experiences lately. The author orchestrated a breathtaking finale. Truly a work of art. Worth every moment spent reading.
Donna Jackson
Donna Jackson September 02, 2025
I thoroughly enjoyed the elegance of it. A brilliant concept executed with flair. Just a few pacing choices I would change. A solid 4 stars from me.
George Moore
George Moore December 15, 2024
Honestly one of the most premium reading experiences lately. I became deeply invested in the protagonist's journey. A masterclass in storytelling. A true literary gem.
Susan Wilson
Susan Wilson November 24, 2024
Exceeded all my expectations. The author orchestrated a breathtaking finale. Truly a work of art. An absolute must-read for connoisseurs of the genre.
Donald Scott
Donald Scott May 20, 2024
Not entirely to my refined tastes. Certain acts were fascinating, while others felt like a slight endeavor to complete. Perhaps more aligned with a different audience's tastes.
Brian Clark
Brian Clark January 24, 2024
Honestly one of the most premium reading experiences lately. The pacing was impeccable and the characters felt incredibly authentic. I was completely immersed. I am now a lifelong fan of this author.
Eric Nguyen
Eric Nguyen October 10, 2025
Honestly one of the most premium reading experiences lately. The prose is exquisite. It’s accessible yet undeniably sophisticated. I will undoubtedly revisit this masterpiece.
Elizabeth Harris
Elizabeth Harris October 28, 2025
A highly sophisticated read. The middle had a deliberate pace, but the climax was phenomenal. Quite impressive overall.
Elizabeth Sanchez
Elizabeth Sanchez May 11, 2024
Absolutely brilliant. I became deeply invested in the protagonist's journey. A masterclass in storytelling. I will undoubtedly revisit this masterpiece.
William Rivera
William Rivera January 15, 2025
A very strong entry. The protagonist was compelling, though some subplots felt slightly overshadowed. A solid 4 stars from me.
Nicholas Phillips
Nicholas Phillips October 23, 2024
I find myself somewhat conflicted. Certain acts were fascinating, while others felt like a slight endeavor to complete. A fair 3 stars.
Emily Campbell
Emily Campbell August 18, 2025
Absolutely brilliant. It strikes a perfect harmony of dialogue and world-building. Every chapter felt necessary. An effortless 5 stars.
Patricia Martin
Patricia Martin June 12, 2024
A profoundly satisfying read. I became deeply invested in the protagonist's journey. A masterclass in storytelling. A true literary gem.
Daniel Rivera
Daniel Rivera January 30, 2025
Excellent, though slightly flawed. It held my rapt attention, even when certain twists were telegraphed. I would highly recommend this to discerning readers.
Matthew Rivera
Matthew Rivera November 01, 2025
A highly sophisticated read. The protagonist was compelling, though some subplots felt slightly overshadowed. I would highly recommend this to discerning readers.
Kimberly Thompson
Kimberly Thompson March 03, 2024
Absolutely brilliant. The pacing was impeccable and the characters felt incredibly authentic. I was completely immersed. I am now a lifelong fan of this author.
Jessica Wright
Jessica Wright May 26, 2025
Honestly one of the most premium reading experiences lately. The pacing was impeccable and the characters felt incredibly authentic. I was completely immersed. An absolute must-read for connoisseurs of the genre.
Linda Thompson
Linda Thompson August 21, 2025
Exceeded all my expectations. The author orchestrated a breathtaking finale. Truly a work of art. A true literary gem.
Matthew Lee
Matthew Lee July 27, 2024
Excellent, though slightly flawed. The protagonist was compelling, though some subplots felt slightly overshadowed. A solid 4 stars from me.
Donald Scott
Donald Scott December 29, 2025
Took a moment to build, but the payoff was spectacular. The middle had a deliberate pace, but the climax was phenomenal. Quite impressive overall.
Nancy Allen
Nancy Allen March 09, 2024
A highly sophisticated read. A brilliant concept executed with flair. Just a few pacing choices I would change. A solid 4 stars from me.
Kenneth Hall
Kenneth Hall November 09, 2024
I thoroughly enjoyed the elegance of it. The protagonist was compelling, though some subplots felt slightly overshadowed. A solid 4 stars from me.
Ashley Phillips
Ashley Phillips December 20, 2024
An acceptable diversion. It verged on repetitive in the second act. A more concise edit would have served it well. Perhaps more aligned with a different audience's tastes.
Linda Jones
Linda Jones October 16, 2024
I thoroughly enjoyed the elegance of it. A brilliant concept executed with flair. Just a few pacing choices I would change. A solid 4 stars from me.
Jennifer Moore
Jennifer Moore April 28, 2025
Masterpiece from start to finish. It strikes a perfect harmony of dialogue and world-building. Every chapter felt necessary. I will undoubtedly revisit this masterpiece.
Ashley Gomez
Ashley Gomez October 01, 2025
Honestly one of the most premium reading experiences lately. I adored how the story unfolded. It kept me captivated without sacrificing elegance. An effortless 5 stars.
Rebecca Cruz
Rebecca Cruz July 21, 2025
A very strong entry. A brilliant concept executed with flair. Just a few pacing choices I would change. A wonderful companion for a quiet weekend.
Sandra King
Sandra King May 07, 2025
I was completely blown away. The prose is exquisite. It’s accessible yet undeniably sophisticated. I am now a lifelong fan of this author.
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